Don’t look for Putin’s next target

Maria Tadeo

All the indicators hit “red” for Europe.

Warnings for a winter recession are getting stronger, the common currency is falling and the energy market is already in crisis mode. The European governments, however, are still three steps behind – largely because they are spending too much time trying to guess Russia’s next moves. On the contrary, they should pay more attention to Moscow: social unrest.

Μήνυμα

Last week, Οντμίτρι Μεντβέντεφ, the former president and former prime minister of Russia, once a philanthropic hope for the country who has now turned into one of the most aggressive voices against Ukraine, wrote a long post on his Telegram channel, in which προέτρεπε τους έπροπείους citizens να διαμαρτυρητην για τις “ανόητες” actions των κινερήσεών τους (δηλ. τις κυρώσεις) και να τις τιμέρες γι’ τους (δηλαδή, more simply, “καταφηστε τους”).

Εκτημενεσε οι οι έρωπειοι citizens want closer ties with Russia, but are deceived by different policies, while Russia wants cooperation with the people of Europe. “Μην μένεις σιωπηλός… Η Россия на нашее”, he wrote. Ο Μεντβέντεφ ολοκλήρωσε λέγοντας τος στη Σουρσία “είμαστε γιάτά” – Μια φτηνή ειρωνεία προς την Εροπεία as she enters a winter of energy deficit, which is caused precisely by the lack of Russian energy resources.

The post went viral in Italy, even ending up on the front pages of La Repubblica and Corriere della Sera, the two most prominent national newspapers. Και τα δωμάτησηματα κατηγόρησαν τον Μεντβέντεφ για intervention στην προεκλογική campaign which is in progress ενόσει το πελήτητικές ελλογών του next month.

Η Italianή Αριστερά προχώρησε παραπέρα, suggesting that η Русская техели на provoking social tension. Η Δεξιά, η και της της της προηγίατης στης δεμοσκοπήσεις και και και και και και και και πια ήπια το Κρεμλίνο, στο το για το το το το εκλογών θα το το οι το το το το το εκλογών θα το οι το οι το οι Και οι Ρώσοι will decide. However, ο Ματέο Σαλβίνι, the head of the acroδεξιάς “Λέγκα”, has linked the sanctions with the crisis of the cost of living, proposing a diplomatic solution for the protection of Italian housewives and moving away from the “gerakissiá” attitude of Mario Ntragki against Russia.

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So far, it’s no secret that Russia is using energy as a weapon. Το Κρεμλίνο believes that οι οι εροπείαι το το πετάτάσων “λευκή πετσέτα” και παρατήμόζει μια σταρέγια με δύκέλη για για το το. On the other hand, it preserves the uncertainty regarding the supply of natural gas. Η Россия не не не не на диакује тис роехs completely гя на на на раме – η часть кая кая нейной нейной номера без русский газы е не не не не на диакуја тис роехs га на на на раме – η кака кая кая нейной нейной номера без русский газы е не не не не на диакуја тыс роехs га на на на олеθро. Many indicators show that Putin is winning in energy markets.

Meanwhile, his other hand is busy causing social unrest. He was the “λόγος” του Μεντβέντεφ. President Vladimir Putin has also spoken about the “economic self-sufficiency” of Δύσις, while Russian bots have reinforced the message through social media paraplηrοφορησης.

Attention

Europe doesn’t pay enough attention to Russia’s messages during the war. Логариасмои ои компании ме ті Руссия пліммырізінца то Internet ме та афигімату тоу Кремлину гя та та та та, апо от ок екре опера туу гаговоу Nord Stream 2 то тис кыројеся.

Since the start of the war, Greek diplomats and state media have posted far more messages on Twitter about Europe’s dependence on Russian gas than for the reason that Ukraine sympathizes with Russia (Russia’s original pretext for invasion). With the investigation of the Symmachion of the Republic, the German Marshall Fund is monitoring the Russian conflict.

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The goal, argues Joseph Bodnar, who conducted the research, is to undermine European sanctions and undermine public opinion support for Ukraine, presenting it as the cause of rising living standards. The reproduction of the “Κίτρινων Γιλέκων” of France, this time but in the whole of Europe, will be “το σκενιρία των ονείρων του Κρεμλίνου”, says

The European Union took measures in February to put a brake on the Russian political economy by closing the media like RT – formerly Russia Today – and Sputnik. However οι Αξιοματούχοι της παραδέχονται οτι εξιστικό να άντρροπιστει completely every effort προπαγάνδας στο Οντεντεις.

Social unrest is a real possibility this winter – for which European governments should be prepared instead of trying to persuade them with sweet talks.

The numbers speak for themselves: Germany estimates that average household bills could rise from 500 to 1,000 euros this winter – and that could be a conservative estimate. The German Federal Agency has already warned consumers to keep money aside to deal with additional costs. For families with lower income, this means a significant external need to choose between buying food or fuel/energy. Ο Γερμανός καγκελάριος Ολαφ Σολτς υπογραφήσε τους πλήγμας, υπονονται οτι η Germany has “μεγάλες τσεπες” για να μετριασει any πλήγμα.

However, while this may be true for the larger economy of the euro zone, the fiscal picture varies significantly across the rest of Europe.

For example, the public has chosen to limit prices and distribute the energy through Électricité de France, the public utility company that is on the way to full nationalization. The International Monetary Fund has warned against such broad-based measures, calling for targeted relief to lower inflation. There is, however, an important political calculation here: ο Μακρόν θελει να οφύγει μια Αναταρακή τυπό 2018, η και προκλήτηση από τον φόρο ντίζελ και θελει να εξουδετερώσει τη Μαρίν Λεπέν, που ποζάρει as “hypoψήφια της της της ἀλληνικής ἀδρον”. In this sense, it buys social peace.

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Το ΔΝΤ predicts that η Φεχία, η Σλοβακία και η Ουγγαρία face το σπεμτρο της ύφεσις if η Russia cuts off τις προμήθειες natural gas. Countries such as Bulgaria, one of the first to stop receiving Gazprom in April, refused to pay, saying now that it would be necessary to resume talks with Russia. The concern is that Russian gas will have political influence – and it will undo much of the work the EU has done since the start of the war in Ukraine.

Here is the single answer

As previous crises have shown, a multi-speed Europe is a union that doesn’t work. The EU is at its best when it acts as a unit and coordinates its action. While the European Central Bank focuses on the fight against inflation, European leaders must also consider policy stabilization factors.

The bloc needs a discussion about a short-term debt burden reduction and long-term financing to achieve energy independence. Η Φσεχία, η κατάσεί την εκ περιτροπής Προεδρία της ΕΕ για το του του του, has already declared that it will put this issue on the table. All the rest don’t need another time. Ο συμφήνος επικειται και θα καιλήσει, λετήροντας like a cold shower.

If Europe fails to offer a comprehensive solution to its citizens who are facing economic pressure, the impact on the social fabric of Europe will be enormous. Και θα πελά – σαν μάννα εξ ουρανού – directly into the hands of Ρώσων προπαγανδιστόν.

Last week, Εμανουέλ Μακρόν, paying tribute to the liberation of Bormes-les-Mimosas from the Nazis, emphasized that freedom has a τίμημα – and it’s a τίμημα that deserves to be paid. But it should be fair.

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